Field Notes

How I Got My Offer and Its Pricing Wrong Three Times

By Wolf Krammel5 min read

Three versions of the same offer, each one dying of the same disease in a smaller dose. The problem was never the wording, and finding that out cost me most of a summer.

Versions
3
Recipients
88
Replies
0
Reply rate
2.1%

I have rewritten what FGN sells more times than I would like to admit, and each version felt finished while I was writing it. That last part is the useful bit, so I want to record it.

If you own a business and you are packaging a new service, repositioning an old one, or a practitioner putting a price on your own work, the failure mode below is available to you too.

Version one: the problem I could measure

The first offer was built around website performance. I could measure a business's site, find genuine defects, and produce an honest report showing what was broken.

Everything about that was true. The measurement was accurate, the problems were real, the report was checkable. It converted at close to nothing.

The clearest evidence sits in my own send log, which I have published in full as every outreach channel I tried. Two campaigns built on an even sharper version of the same idea, telling a business its security certificate was broken, went out to 88 people across two variations. Zero replies. Not a weak result. A zero, twice, on a problem that was verifiable and genuinely theirs.

Version two: the same mistake, better written

So I rewrote it. Instead of the defect, I described what the defect cost: the revenue path leaking, the calls not converting, the opportunity sitting unclaimed.

Better copy. Marginally better numbers. Same disease.

I spent a while here believing I had a craft problem, and the thing about a craft problem is that it is endlessly workable. There is always another subject line. That is what makes it such a comfortable place to be stuck.

Version three: the structural realization

The insight, when it came, required no data at all and was available on day one.

I was qualifying websites. I needed to qualify buyers.

Slowness is a property of a website. It can be measured precisely, at scale, for free, and I had built an excellent machine for doing it. Motivation is a property of a person and cannot be measured from outside at all. Those two are close to independent, which means my entire qualification system was sorting prospects on an axis unrelated to whether they would ever buy. I wrote that lesson up on its own as what I got wrong about qualifying buyers.

That is why the certificate campaign got a zero. The problem was real and provable and the owner was not bothered. My machine found him with great efficiency and sent him a precise document about something that was his and not his concern.

In Revenue Engine terms, I had built a fine Attract machine that was attracting attention of no use to anyone.

Why it took three versions

Because measurement is cheap and reasoning is not.

Running a query looks like work and produces something that has the shape of diligence. Sitting with a mechanism feels like stalling. So every time I got stuck, I reached for a measurement, and every measurement I had was about websites, because that was the thing I could measure. You cannot query your way to the discovery that you are measuring the wrong noun.

I made the same mistake in miniature three times that month. Once I computed a reply rate from a table that only existed because people had replied, and got 17% instead of the true 2.1%. Once I declared an image broken three times when it was mid-decode. Once I verified prices against a hidden element in the page and reported them clean when what a visitor actually saw said something else. Same structure every time: I checked the convenient proxy and treated it as the thing.

What this means for pricing

The pricing conversation is downstream of all of it, which is the part I misunderstood longest.

I kept adjusting the number, on the theory that the number was the friction. It never was. When a buyer is not motivated, no price is right, including free. When a buyer is genuinely bothered by the problem, the price is a negotiation rather than an objection.

So the sequence that actually matters is: find the person for whom this is currently a live irritation, then price against what solving it is worth to them. Reversing those two, which is what I did, produces a lot of careful work on a number that was never the obstacle.

The related trap is pricing against the wrong budget. Services sold to business owners, whether to a practice or a firm, are frequently priced as though they compete with software, because software is what they superficially resemble. They do not. They compete with whatever the owner is currently spending to grow, and that is a different order of magnitude and a different decision-maker inside the same head.

What I would do differently

Test the offer against people before building the machine that finds them. It is the cheapest thing to test and the most expensive thing to get wrong, and I did it in the other order.

And when something is not working, ask whether the problem is craft or structure before reaching for the next rewrite. Craft problems are comfortable and structural ones are not, which is precisely why the comfortable answer keeps getting chosen.

Questions owners ask

How do I know if my offer is wrong or my marketing is?

A rough test: if people understand what you are offering and do not want it, the offer is wrong. If they want it once they understand but rarely get that far, the marketing is wrong. Owners overwhelmingly assume the second, because it is the more flattering diagnosis and the more workable one.

How many times should I rewrite before changing the offer itself?

Twice. If a second serious rewrite of the words does not move anything, the problem is not in the words, and a third rewrite is a way of avoiding a harder question.

Should I lower my price if nothing is selling?

Almost never as the first move. A price cut on an offer nobody is motivated to buy produces a cheaper version of the same silence, and it permanently anchors anyone who does buy. Work out whether the people you are reaching are actually bothered by the problem first.

What is the fastest way to find out if an offer works?

Put it in front of people who already have the problem acutely and see whether they ask a second question. Curiosity is the signal, not agreement. Somebody asking how it works is a great deal more informative than somebody saying it sounds interesting. If they do ask, a services page that answers the second question well is worth more than a cleverer first line.

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